Base keeps the client's prices, with fewer orders for the items priced above Kitea and the missing management and installation costs added. On that basis the five-year NPV is ($74,658) at the 21.1% cost of capital, the IRR over 60 months is 15.1% (below that cost of capital), the year-5 net margin is 17.2% (above the 15% advantage line), and cash pays back in month 44.

The client's plan as submitted shows a five-year NPV of $70,236, but it leaves out management and installation. The client's case does not clear the cost of capital over the study period, and its desk and shelf prices sit well above Kitea. We would not plan or fund the plant on it; the recommended option shows the plant at market-level prices with a complete cost base and the four improvements.

The recommended plan clears the 21.1% cost of capital, but only just: an IRR of 22.0%, a five-year NPV of $17,197, payback in year 4 and a year-5 net margin of 22.4%. It needs $718,405 of equity within a commitment of $850,000.

Price level decides it. Liquidity is a real but secondary risk, and rent paid upfront is a funding item. The plan is sound enough to take forward, and not yet proven enough for a final go.

The action plan is built for the recommended option. Switch to Recommended to see it.

For the base option to become a basis for decision, the client would need to confirm its cost method (whether a cutting charge sits on top of labour and machine depreciation, and over how many units a month labour and depreciation were spread), and add management salaries and installation crews.

1. FundingEquity commitment $850,000 in three instalments: $690,000 at lease signing; $80,000 at month 3 or production start, whichever is first; $80,000 reserve in months 6–9, only if needed and the red flags are green.Target: Cash balance never below zero; reserve unused in the base case
2. Before opening · Price floorPrice test: pre-sell 6–8 catalogue items online and in a pop-up or showroom corner at Kitea-level prices for 2–3 months (samples from a contract workshop).Target: At least 30 paid orders at no more than 10% below the price list; otherwise re-price before buying machines
3. Before opening · L4Contract terms ready: 50% deposit at signing for B2B and projects; negotiate 30 days' credit with board and fitting suppliers.Target: Cash cycle under 30 days of revenue
4. Before openingStock policy: order boards by container for about 60 days of use; keep 1 unit per item and finish in the catalogue; clear stock older than 6 months.Target: Raw-material turnover ≥ 6 times a year
5. Months 1–6 · L1Hire in steps with the load; cross-train helpers between store, panel saw, QC and dispatch.Target: 11 operators and 14 helpers at full volume
6. Months 1–6 · L3Run the website on a $150-a-month platform; buy paid traffic only while marketing per order stays under 15% of the order value.Target: Conversion ≥ 1.0% of visitors by the end of year 1
7. Months 1–12Sales and B2B manager works a hotel, serviced-apartment and developer list; room package with 10% maximum discount.Target: First contract signed by month 8
8. Months 12–18 · L2Order-book target: a second B2B contract signed in year 1 for delivery in year 2, and 6 months of project orders in hand.Target: 3 B2B contracts delivered in year 2
9. Year 2 onwardReview prices against Kitea every 6 months; add premium finishes as paid options; second shift only when the bottleneck passes 85%.Target: Bottleneck 60–85%
10. Every monthTrack the red flags (KPIs & Red Flags sheet): project m², online orders, margin after materials, cash runway.Target: Two reds in a row: stop and re-scope